The Actuarial Truth About Long-Term Care
70% of people turning 65 will need long-term care. Median nursing home cost is $108,405/year. Should you buy LTCI, self-insure, or go hybrid? We run 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with Markov health state modeling to find your optimal strategy. Powered by SSA, CMS, and CareScout data.
Free risk assessment. No signup required. Data from SSA, CMS, CareScout, HHS/ASPE.
Actuarial Models, Not Insurance Sales Pitches
Insurance agents sell policies. We build the math that tells you whether buying a policy, self-insuring, or going hybrid actually makes financial sense given your specific wealth, health, and family history.
Longevity Risk Engine
SSA period life tables by age and sex with health-status adjustments. Survival probabilities, conditional probabilities of reaching ages 80+, 85+, 90+ where LTC need peaks.
Markov Health State Model
Transitions between Independent, Needs Help with ADLs, Facility Care, and Death. Probability distributions sourced from HHS/ASPE LTSS risk projections calibrated by age and sex.
Monte Carlo Wealth Simulation
10,000 simulations varying age at LTC onset, duration of need, care intensity, investment returns, inflation, and LTCI rate increases. Probability distributions, not single-point guesses.
3-Strategy Comparison
Buy traditional LTCI, self-insure with invested assets, or go hybrid with a life/LTC policy. Expected total cost, worst-case (P95), probability of financial catastrophe, and breakeven analysis.
Tax Efficiency Overlay
Age-based IRS deduction limits for LTCI premiums, HSA contributions for LTC, tax-free benefits under qualified plans, and Medicaid vs. private-pay tax implications.
Partnership Program Analysis
Dollar-for-dollar Medicaid asset protection in 43 participating states. Model the effective return on partnership-qualified policies and how they change the self-insure calculus.
How It Works
Enter Your Profile
Age, sex, state, investable assets, savings rate, health status, family history, marital status, and risk tolerance. Takes about 4 minutes.
We Run the Actuarial Models
Longevity risk, Markov health state transitions, care cost projections, LTCI premium modeling, wealth trajectory simulation, tax overlay, and partnership analysis.
See Your Optimal Strategy
Buy LTCI, self-insure, or hybrid -- with expected cost, worst-case cost, ruin probability, breakeven analysis, and personalized recommendation based on your numbers.
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The Hardest Financial Decision You Shouldn't Guess On
Enter your financial profile and get a complete LTC strategy analysis. Buy vs. self-insure vs. hybrid with Monte Carlo confidence intervals, tax efficiency overlay, partnership program analysis, and a personalized recommendation based on your numbers -- not a sales pitch.
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