Markov Health Model
Four-state Markov chain: Independent, ADL Need, Facility Care, Death. Transition rates from HHS/ASPE.
Markov Health State Transition Model
Our four-state Markov chain models transitions between: Independent (no LTC need), Needs Help with ADLs (2+ activities of daily living), Facility Care (nursing home or assisted living), and Death. Transition probabilities are calibrated by age and sex using HHS/ASPE LTSS risk projections and SOA disability incidence rates.
The model computes expected duration in each state and the overall probability of ever entering facility care -- a critical input for the self-insure vs. buy decision.